"Next week is all counterprogramming, with the only wide debuts being the R-rated Sex and the City and The Strangers. Expect Indy to hold on to the crown." - me, last Monday

Yeah, good work, Nostradamus. "Counterprogramming" -- can you believe this idiot? Who let him on here, anyway? Far from headlining mere counterprogramming, Carrie Bradshaw delivered a swift kick to Indiana Jones' man-crotch, winning the weekend with $55.7 million to Indy's $46. Sex and the City's bow is the 5th all-time best opening weekend for an R-rated film. I -- and, in my defense, many others -- obviously underestimated the size of the "niche" audience eager to watch the big-screen finale of the far-too-popular HBO show. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, meanwhile, fell a hefty but hardly uncommon 55% from its first weekend, and it looks likely to eventually overtake Iron Man. That film, in turn, continues to have remarkable legs, dropping only 32% and bringing its cume to $276.6 million. And, since I caught flak for not mentioning it last week, I'll say that What Happens in Vegas is also holding very well, despite sucking.

Rogue Pictures will be very pleased with the debut of The Strangers, a low-budget, R-rated horror film. $20.7 million is a very good number, matching that of the PG-13 Prom Night 8 weeks back. And a #3 turn in last weekend's marketplace is nothing to be ashamed of. Horror films tend to plummet pretty quickly after the first weekend, but word-of-mouth on this one might actually be okay; we'll see. A bit further down the chart, Tarsem's cult-ready The Fall performed unspectacularly in its first weekend of semi-wide release, taking in $361,000 on 108 screens.

Click through for the weekend's top 10, and a couple of very sheepish thoughts about next weekend.

Ever since the numbers were released yesterday, anyone and everyone (as well as anyone who is everyone) has been talking Speed Racer -- specifically, how a $120 million Hollywood blockbuster could open with only $20 million at the box office. You can blame Iron Man, you can blame the marketing, you can blame the blogs for trashing the film all year long, you can blame Christina Ricci's weird haircut, or you can blame that judge on Project Runway for saying, "You can never have too much color!" Fact is, it missed the mark.

But what could've helped Speed Racer make more money in its opening weekend? The running time has been mentioned a lot in the past 24 hours, but a running time doesn't exactly woo audiences into the theater. Is the film's marketing 100% to blame? Should the trailers have been cut differently? Should they have stressed that this was a film for kids? Should they have added a little viral action into the mix? Or what about overall? From the beginning, were the Wachowski Brothers the right folks for the job? Should they have gone the animated route instead -- or maybe the animated 3-D route? Should they have made this a film for older kids; slap on a PG-13 rating?

In your opinion, what could've helped Speed Racer -- both in its opening weekend and in its development as a feature film?

According to early estimates from Box Office Mojo, this summer's second big-budgeted extravaganza failed to pick up more than $20 million at the box office this weekend, with the poorly-reviewed comedy What Happens in Vegas finishing right behind in third. Of course, Iron Man took the top spot for a second week in a row with roughly $50 million, while Speed Racer -- which some projected to take home at least $30-40 million -- came in second with $20.2 million, as What Happens in Vegas slid into third with $20 million. Rounding out the top five were Made of Honor ($7.6 million) and Baby Mama ($5.7 million).

So what happened to Speed Racer? Part of the reason had to do with its targeted audience, which, supposedly, was kids, though kids weren't very familiar with the cartoon the film was based on. That, and the flick clocked in at over two hours -- a running time that's been mentioned a lot this weekend, as well as one that's way too long for a PG-rated kiddie adventure. That said, its PG-rating scared away those adults who grew up with the cartoon; people who, most likely, were looking for something a bit more skewed toward adults (especially when Iron Man came out the weekend before and kicked a whole lot of ass). Nevertheless, I'm pretty sure we can rule out that Speed Racer franchise at this point.

Coupla questions for ya: Why do you think Speed Racer failed to power across the finish line in spectacular fashion? Also, what happens to the Wachowski Brothers now? Will folks think twice before giving them $150 million and free reign?

The critics might not like it, and also can't agree on whether it's better or worse than its two predecessors, but Variety reports that Resident Evil: Extinction topped the box office this weekend, pulling in an estimated gross of $24 million (from 2,828 runs). While we won't know if the success will continue into next week, this sci-fi horror flick is a perfect example of the sequel syndrome. The first, and often cited as the best, Resident Evil raked in $17 million in 2002 (on its way to $40.1 million), and the second, Resident Evil: Apocalypse, collected $23 million (heading to $50.7 million) in its first weekend. The increase has slowed, but it's still there.

Number two, of course, was another zombie flick, Good Luck Chuck. Okay, so it isn't about the undead, but it might make you one, if a 3% fresh rating is to be believed. A rating at 60, 50, or even 40% can be open for discussion, but it's usually the Justin and Kelly variety of schlock if it drops below 10%. So, we've got already-made zombies in a post-apocalypse Vegas battling an abysmal comedy that might make people into zombies. Oh, and we should mention that moviegoers packed the theaters for Rob Zombie's Halloween. Yup, it's zombie's all around! The question is: can they last? Will viewers not only disagree with the critics again, but continue to visit the flicks in droves, or will this batch bow their heads and agree, leaving next week to be open for new fare as the zombies meet their maker, once again?

Apparently the first trick they teach the students at Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry is how to conjure up enough money to choke a hippogriff. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix set a new record for a Wednesday opening with $44 million, and taking in $139.7 million as of Sunday. Last week's other newcomer Captivity finished in 12th place, taking in a mere $1.4 million dollars. With Hostel Part 2 also experiencing lackluster box office numbers, might this indicate that the torture horror fad has ended? I suppose the real test of that will come when the fourth installment of the reliably successful Saw franchise hacks its way into theaters this October.

Once the smoke cleared, here's how the weekend looked:
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $77.1 million
2. Transformers $37 million
3. Ratatouille $18 million
4. Live Free or Die Hard $11.2 million
5. License to Wed $7.3 million

This weekend's premieres look to be more reserved than previous weeks, with not a robot, super hero or wizard in sight.

Hairspray
What's It All About: An adaptation of the Broadway musical that was itself based on John Waters' 1988 film, Hairspray is about an overweight girl's obsession with a TV dance show. The impressive cast includes John Travolta, Queen Latifah, Michelle Pfeiffer, Christopher Walken and Amanda Bynes.
Why It Might Do Well: Rotten Tomatoes is giving this a 100% Fresh rating and I, like many Americans, have a morbid fascination with the idea of John Travolta playing an obese woman.
Why It Might Not Do Well: A musical is a tough sell these days.
Number of Theaters: 3,000
Prediction: $20 million

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry
What's It All About: Adam Sandler and Kevin James star as a pair of straight firefighters who pretend to be gay so they can register as domestic partners which will allow James' character to name his children as beneficiaries on his life insurance. One can only assume there will be merry mix-ups.
Why It Might Do Well: Knocked Up has done amazingly well this summer, pulling in $138.2 million so far, so the time may be right for another quirky relationship comedy, and both stars have proven they know how to make people laugh. And lest we forget, we get to see Jessica Biel in her underwear.
Why It Might Not Do Well: A plot that sounds like a sitcom episode.
Number of Theaters: 3,200
Prediction: $28 million

My method of prediction this week involves casting bones. Unfortunately, the only bones I had available were some KFC leftovers and it's gotten a bit messy in here. Needless to say, the wife is not pleased, but I suspect the coming weekend will go something like this:
1 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
2 I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry
3 Transformers
4 Hairspray
5 Ratatouille

Last Week's Prediction Ranking
1. Matt: 16
1. Anna07: 16
1. Bubba8193: 16
1. Ray: 16
2. The 13th: 13
2. Bradley Thom: 13
2. Chris: 13
2. Gregory Rubinstein: 13
3. NPC:12
4. Edgeoforever: 10

If you want to join in on our friendly box office prediction competition (and I hope you do), don't forget to post your prediction for the top five films in the comments section below. One point for every top five movie correctly named, two points for every correct placement, and one extra point for the top movie.

When debates arise about just how good the current sea of movies and blockbusters are, money matters always come into play. "Such-and-such film made a bajillion dollars at the box office, and fifteen trillion people went to see it, so it has to be good!" The other aspect that sometimes steps up to the plate -- how do each of these movies pan out if pitted against each other, taking inflation into account? Box Office Mojo has a list of Domestic Grosses, adjusted for the inflation of ticket prices over the years, and it includes a few of this years big movies -- Spider-Man 3 and Shrek the Third (highlighted in yellow). You know what? They're nowhere near the top.

The site adjusted ticket prices for all movies to be the estimated 2007 average of $6.58, and then whipped up a list of the top 100 grossing films, listing titles, studio, adjusted gross, unadjusted gross and the year of release. From this year's two that I mentioned above -- Spidey is ranked number 87, and Shrek is 94. What's up at the top? Gone with the Wind, of course. The film's unadjusted gross was $198,676,459, but with the inflation adjustment it's a whopping $1,329,453,600. Yes, that's over a billion bucks. The rest of the top five -- Star Wars, The Sound of Music, E.T. and The Ten Commandments. Sure, there's more to consider in this argument, but it's pretty interesting to see how gross numbers play out when ticket prices are the same. Thoughts?

Steve Carell's Evan Almighty outdid the opening weekend of his last starring vehicle The 40 Year Old Virgin by about $11 million, placing Evan in last weekend's number one spot. As many have pointed out to me, I was overly optimistic about 1408, but the Stephen King adaptation starring John Cusack still managed a respectable second place. Both of last week's big gun's pushed The Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer down to number three, with box office dollars dropping 65% from its opening weekend for the super hero epic. Sleeper hit Knocked Up continues to add theaters, with the film showing on 68 additional screens this week, with the comedy dropping two positions.

Last weekend's box office top five:
1. Evan Almighty: $32.1 million
2. 1408: $20.17 million
3. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer: $20.15 million
4. Ocean's Thirteen: $11.3 million
5. Knocked Up: $10.6 million

This week has a couple of big hitters, one of which is a much anticipated action sequel and the other a new animated feature from the director of The Incredibles. Here's what we've got:

Live Free or Die Hard
What's It All About: Action film poster child John McLane (Bruce Willis) continues dying hard 12 years after the franchise's last installment. McLane is taking on a high-tech terrorist who is threatening to collapse the U.S. economy via some devilish computer shenanigans.
Why It Might Do Well: Since McLane's new sidekick is played by that guy from the Apple Computer ads (Justin Long), the film will, at the very least, get the Mac user vote. McLane and his insane stunts have been absent from theaters long enough that the flick will certainly inspire nostalgia, and this kind of all out action movie is tailor-made for the summer market. And, of course, there's Bruce.
Why It Might Not Do Well: 12 years is a long time between sequels.
Number of Theaters: 3,350
Prediction: $40 million

Ratatouille
What's It All About: A computer animated family comedy about a rat who dreams of becoming a chef, and who seeks to fulfill his destiny at one of Paris's finest restaurants.
Why It Might Do Well: Rat will tap much of the same market as Shrek the Third which has made over $308 million, and the Disney/Pixar duo has an impressive history. Based on the trailer I'd say they've got another winner.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Without the recognizability of a previously successful character like Shrek, audiences may be slow to warm up to our rat-faced hero.
Number of Theaters: 3,500
Prediction: $36 million

Evening
What's It All About: Based on a novel by Susan Minot, a dying woman tells her two adult daughters about the defining moments of her life and of her greatest love.
Why It Might Do Well: Like A Mighty Heart last week, Evening provides a meat and potatoes alternative to all the summer movie eye candy, and an impressive cast including Meryl Streep, Claire Danes, Vanessa Redgrave, and Glenn Close may attract some attention.
Why It Might Not Do Well: This one may be too heavy for summer crowds looking for more lightweight fare.
Number of Theaters: 900
Prediction: $4 million

My prediction from last week was less than stellar, so this time around I've cast aside my crystal ball and am pursuing a more scientific approach that involves the positions of the stars, barometric pressure, and a Magic 8-Ball. Here's how I see the weekend going:

1. Live Free or Die Hard
2. Ratatouille
3. Evan Almighty
4. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
5. 1408

Last Week's Prediction Rankings:
1. Bubba8193: 16
2. NPC: 12
2. Opp-Neg: 12
2. Anna07: 12
2. Ray: 12
2. Chris: 12
2. Gregory Rubinstein: 12
8. Mario: 11
9. Ethan Stanislawski: 10
10. Bradley Thom: 9
11. DW: 7
12. Matt: 4

To have your prediction counted in our weekly competition, don't forget to give us your top five list before 5:00 PM on Saturday. One point for every top five movie correctly named, two points for every correct placement, and one extra point for the top movie.

For the first time in weeks the box office top five was free of arachnids, with Spider-man 3 crawling its way off the list entirely, and Danny Ocean and his charming cadre of thieves from Ocean's 13 stole the top spot from that other set of bandits in Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End. Hostel II surprised some people by pulling in a mere $8 million, showing that folks seem to be more in the mood for laughs and some swashbuckling rather than a bolt-cutter to the toes. Here are the numbers for last weekend:

1. Ocean's Thirteen: $37.1 million
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End: $21.3 million
3. Knocked Up: $20 million
4. Surf's Up: $18 million
5. Shrek the Third: $15.8 million

Comics fans lamenting the wallcrawler's departure from the top five should take solace in knowing that this weekend will see the premiere of another comic book sequel. Let's take a look.

Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
What It's About: The super powered quartet from 2005's Fantastic Four return to protect the world from a silver clad surfer dude from the stars, and the team's arch nemesis Dr. Doom returns to stir up his own brand of evil as well.
Why It Might Do Well: This flick easily had the coolest trailer of all the summer blockbusters, featuring a scene of The Human Torch (Chris Evans) chasing the Silver Surfer (Doug Jones) across the New York City skyline. although that may be my inner comic book geek talking. The first film in the franchise had a $56 million opening weekend before going on to gross $155 million domestic, so it's reasonable to assume a lot of those ticket buyers will be back for more. Also, Spider-man 3's record breaking numbers demonstrate that comic book adaptations are still hot. Finally, a film's box office figures will NEVER be negatively effected by the presence of Jessica Alba in a form-fitting costume composed of unstable molecules.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Elektra proved that a film adaptation of a Marvel Comics character isn't necessarily a license to print money.
Prediction: $60 million

Nancy Drew
What It's About: Based on a series of young adult mystery novels, Nancy Drew tells the tale of a small town girl detective (Emma Roberts) accompanying her father on a business trip to Los Angeles. While there, Nancy uncovers evidence in a long unsolved case involving a murdered movie star.
Why It Might Do Well: While I've never read the books, a character that has been in print since 1930 must have something going for her.
Why It Might Not Do Well: With Pirates, Shrek and Surf's Up still out there, there's some stiff competition for the family film dollar. The trailer makes this one look like a de-fanged version of Mean Girls, and braving the summer movie season without star power is the tough way to go.
Prediction: $4 million

I've dusted off my crystal ball, spritzed it with Windex, and glanced at this coming weekend's box office top five (PLEASE NOTE: Crystal ball is no longer under warranty, has been dropped several times, and usually the best I can get out of it are Bonanza reruns, so judge these results accordingly.):

1. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
2. Ocean's 13
3. Knocked Up
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
5. Surf's Up


Last Week's Prediction Rankings
1. Rob: 16
2. Brody: 12
2. Bubba8193: 12
2. Gilbert Davis: 12
2. Tangoeco: 12
6. Patricia: 10
7. Chris: 9
7. Lyz: 9
9. Mario: 7
9. Opp-Neg: 7
9. Dylsan: 7
9. Goulet: 7

Don't forget, predictions for this week's box office top five need to be in by 5:00PM on Saturday. Good luck to all.

Sony has accused the Walt Disney Company of bending the rules in announcing the box office totals for Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End. The main issue in question is whether Pirates 3 or Spider-Man 3 brought in the most gold doubloons over its first six days of worldwide release. Sony spokesman Steve Eltzer is claiming that At World's End opened in at least two areas on the previous Tuesday, which would add a seventh day of grosses to what Disney announced as a six-day record. Disney is claiming "we had previews that generated $1.4 million. And in keeping with industry practice, we rolled it into the opening day." I, Patrick Walsh, am claiming that if these people would put as much work into their movies as they do into arguing about insanely trivial financial records, moviegoers would be a hell of a lot happier.

Sony opened Spider-Man 3 on a Tuesday in some territories overseas and announced a "six-day opening record" of $232 million. Disney announced its "six-day opening record" of $251 for Pirates. And both have been grumbling and bickering back and forth ever since. "While there may or may not be other territories that opened prior to Wednesday, we believe that as more day-and-date releases enter the market, there should be a consistent standard in international box office reporting," says Eltzer. "This issue is larger than an opening-week box office statistic." Hear hear! Way to focus on the truly important issues, boys! This is a sad day indeed. I thought Hollywood was supposed to be a world of magical entertainments and childlike wonder, and now we come to find out that these people seem to be most interested in ... money? Who knew?

Last week was pretty easy to call; anyone who didn't think Shrek the Third would reign triumphant must have something against ogres of color. Our winners, each with perfect predictions, were bubba8193 (again!) and Mario. Congrats, guys. Your auras of superiority are in the mail.

1. Shrek the Third - $122 million
2. Spider-Man 3 - $28.5 million
3. 28 Weeks Later - $5.1 million
4. Disturbia - $3.6 million
5. Georgia Rule - $3.4 million

This week? Hmm, tough call. Will Lindsay Lohan's fans mobilize and launch Georgia Rule to the top of the charts?

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
What It's About: Jack Sparrow (Johnny Depp) is trapped in Davy Jones' locker at the World's End, dead (or "dead") and insane; Elizabeth Swann (Keira Knightley), feeling guilty for abandoning him, leads the rescue brigade; Will Turner (Orlando Bloom) wants to free his father from his debt to Davy Jones; and Barbossa (Geoffrey Rush) (who was dead, but is feeling much better) is antsy about the East India Company, which -- using Davy Jones (Bill Nighy) as its pawn -- is threatening to end the pirates' way of life forever. The motley crew heads to Singapore, where Sao Feng (Chow Yun-Fat) possesses not just the maps to the World's End but also the power to convene the Brethren Court of Pirate Lords.
Why It Might Break the Record: Last summer's Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest set a box office record with an opening take of $135 million; this summer the title shifted to Spider-Man 3 ($151 million). Seeing as how the blockbusters seem to be setting new records practically every week, why shouldn't At World's End be any different? On top of that, this installment, which has all the members of the franchise returning, is something of a finale to the series ... even if it isn't (based on Depp's recent comments) actually the end.
Why It Might Not Break the Record: At 168 minutes, and with so many plotlines (some would say too many), it's not for the casual viewer. The length also limits the number of times per day that a theater can show the film; Spider-Man 3, if you're keeping score, was 139 minutes long. (Cranky old lady rant: Whatever happened to the days when two hours was considered long? Anyone? Anyone?)
Prediction: $168 million