My good pal Ed Havens over at FilmJerk recently pointed me towards an Oscar piece that was so interesting, I knew I had to share it with the Cinereaders. Using a really interesting variety of qualifiers, Edward was able to offer some rather compelling possibilities as to how the awards might come out. By going back and poring over the Oscar stats from yesteryear, for example, he says Martin Scorsese is damn near a lock to get his trophy this year. (Finally!)

It's all a little too complicated and number-centric for a guy like me to fully understand, but by figuring out how often a Best Picture winner was also nominated for {best director, best screenplay, best editing, etc.}, it gives us a clearer indication as to who might bring home the gold this year. And these guys didn't stop at Best Picture, either. The stat-crunching goes on to semi-predict who'll reign supreme in all the big races, including actors, director, editors, art directors, and so on. So if you're participating in an Oscar pool this year and you need some substantial stats to back up your picks, this is one article you have to check out before Sunday night.

Happy February, movie fans. As the days get longer, the movies are supposed to get better ... or that's the theory, anyway. Of course, it's still early February -- and a Super Bowl weekend, at that -- so I wouldn't put too much faith in that maxim. On the other hand, after Epic Movie, there's pretty much nowhere to go but up, right?

Because I Said So: Why should you go see this movie? Because Universal said so, that's why. Oh, I'm kidding. You should -- or rather, many of you will -- see this movie because it's a romantic comedy, stars Diane Keaton and Mandy Moore as mother and daughter, and has the added bonus of co-starring Lauren Graham (who really needs to win an Emmy one of these days for her work on Gilmore Girls) and Piper Perabo wearing very little clothing. It's also getting a big marketing push from the studio, so with all the able-bodied men holed up in their Super Bowl bunkers this weekend, lots of the womenfolk are gonna leave them there to go revel in the chick flick. (Note: Yes, I know many women love football. I happen to be one of them. Just trying to think like a studio, is all.)
Watch trailer and a clip | Get showtimes & tix | Read reviews

The Messengers: Kristen Stewart stars in the American feature film debut by the Pang brothers, the Hong Kong directing duo (they're twins) best known for their frightfest The Eye. And Stewart, if you don't recognize the name, appeared in Panic Room as Jodie Foster's daughter. She's all grown up now (well, 16) and headlining a horror flick about a girl who discovers that both she and her 3-year-old brother can see things -- dead things, presumably -- that her parents can't. How will it do? The Hitcher opened to disappointing returns a couple weekends ago, and Stewart's not a big star; also, the Pang brothers aren't known by name here in the U.S. But with Night at the Museum and Stomp the Yard finally losing steam and Epic Movie getting horrendous word of mouth, it's a weak competitive field ... and people do like a good scare.
Watch exclusive clip | Get showtimes & tix | Read Kristen's AIM interview

Also of Note: Pan's Labyrinth expands to over 1,000 screens this weekend. Please go see it. Because ... well, because I said so, OK? And also because it's awesome.

I'm even less certain about the box office top five this week than I was last week, so I'm looking forward to everyone showing me up. Let's make the deadline Saturday at 3 p.m. Eastern, which means you have 24 hours. Hit it.

1. Because I Said So
2. The Messengers
3. Epic Movie
4. Smokin' Aces
5. Night at the Museum

POST: What's your weekend top five prediction?

POST: What do you think of these movies?

It's been crazy this past week, what with Sundance (where I chatted with Ginnifer Goodwin about high school reunions and salad on a stick) and Oscar nominations (I wasn't shocked at the Dreamgirls snub, but the exclusion of Guillermo del Toro for Best Director broke my heart). On top of all that, there are a few medium-size movies opening this weekend, making for one of the toughest box office predictions yet.

Epic Movie: From the writers of the Scary Movie series and Date Movie comes another spoof, this one tackling such sacred cows as Pirates of the Caribbean and The Chronicles of Narnia. Let's see, the Scary Movie films have made a gazillion dollars (yes, that's a real number), and Date Movie earned $19 million over last year's three-day President's Day weekend, finishing second to Disney's Eight Below. Clearly audiences have a taste for this kind of movie, and it should do pretty well. Hey, mindless entertainment makes the world go 'round. I've logged countless hours slack-jawed in front of my TV to prove it.
Watch the trailer | Get showtimes & tix | Read synopsis | See photos

Catch and Release: Jennifer Garner stars as a woman whose fiancé dies on the eve of their wedding; Timothy Olyphant (Seth Bullock on HBO's Deadwood) is the hottie who heals her pain. All hail the chick flick! This marks the solo directorial debut of Susannah Grant, who co-directed Charlotte's Web and wrote Erin Brockovich and In Her Shoes. Reviews are middling (49 out of 100 is pretty much exactly in the middle, no?), but this sort of film, like Epic Movie, is review-proof. I still want to see it, and I'll probably wind up watching it 15 times on cable, just like I get sucked in whenever Garner's 13 Going on 30 airs. Hmm, I may be revealing a bit too much about my TV-watching habits in this post ...
Watch the trailer | Get showtimes & tix | See photos | See rising TV stars

Smokin' Aces: Forget what I said about hailing the chick flick. All hail The Piven is what I really meant. That would be Jeremy Piven, aka Ari Gold on HBO's (again with the HB and O!) Entourage. Piven stars as a two-bit hustler in Vegas who pisses off the wrong mobster and finds himself on the run when the kingpin takes out a contract on his life. We've got violence, we've got yooge stars (Ben Affleck, Andy Garcia, Ray Liotta, Common, and Alicia Keys in her big-screen debut), we've got a flick that appeals to young men and has little competition. Could go either way, but never forget the appeal of violence and Vegas, baby! Vegas!
Watch the trailer | Get showtimes & tix | See Piven & Common chat

Also opening wide: Werewolf flick Blood and Chocolate, The Departed (studio is re-releasing)

Anything could happen this week, folks; may as well post the movies up on a wall and throw a dart at it. Go on and take your best shot -- by noon Saturday, please. My picks:

1. Epic Movie
2. Smokin' Aces
3. Dreamgirls
4. Catch and Release
5. Night at the Museum

POST: What's your weekend top five prediction?

POST: What do you think of these movies?

It's January, and that means we've entered the dog days of moviegoing. Studios release blockbusters in the summer and Oscar contenders at the end of the year, leaving poor li'l January, February, March and April with a bunch of movies that fit in neither category -- that is, horror flicks and films that, to put it kindly, sort of suck. (OK, that wasn't kind.)

In 2006, for example, the lowest-earning film of the year -- in fact, of all time -- was a thriller called 'Zyzzyx,' which co-starred Katherine Heigl (Izzie on 'Grey's Anatomy') and earned a grand total of ... $30. Yes, $30. I believe that covers the director, his wife and an insomniac who wandered in by mistake, looking for a nap. It opened in February. See my point? Anyway, despite that, there are still some gems to be found before we hit the summer. We'll keep our fingers crossed.

'Freedom Writers': Speaking of 'Grey's Anatomy,' here's a movie that co-stars Patrick Dempsey, known to viewers everywhere as McDreamy. He plays the husband of Hilary Swank's character, a do-gooder teacher who comes to the inner city to do some good. Wait a minute, haven't we seen this movie before? Oh, my mistake. That was 'Dangerous Minds.' And about a million other movies. To its credit, the movie's getting decent reviews, and Hilary's got those two Oscars. I just don't know whether she's a big enough name to headline this type of movie successfully, particularly in such a crowded genre.

'Happily N'Ever After': The only family movie opening this weekend, 'Happily N'Ever After' would seem to have the best chance of knocking 'Night at the Museum' from its No. 1 perch. It's an animated fairy tale -- a comic retelling of 'Cinderella' -- starring real-life married couple Sarah Michelle Gellar and Freddie Prinze Jr. as Cinderella and Rick, her dishwasher best friend who's secretly in love with her. The prince, interestingly enough (who isn't necessarily the good guy in this movie), is named Prince Humperdink, presumably in a nod to one of my all-time favorite movies, 'The Princess Bride.' At any rate, kids and parents who've already seen 'Museum' and 'Happy Feet' will probably want to give this a chance, though the fact that this movie is opening in January and not peak holiday time is a little suspect, methinks.

'Children of Men': Already showing in limited release but opening wide now is Alfonso Cuarón's ('Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban,' 'Y Tu Mamá También') futuristic thriller, starring Clive Owen and Julianne Moore, about a world in which women can no longer give birth to children. I wasn't able to catch a screening of this one, but I can't wait to see it. It's gotten great reviews and has made plenty of Best of 2006 lists; in addition, my colleague Tommy says it has "the coolest sequence of the year": a 10-minute, uninterrupted tracking shot in which Owen, running through a war zone, ducks in and out of buildings and buses. This is the highest quality film going wide this week -- and as a fan of Cuaron's, I'm rooting for it to do well. It's not the most accessible film, but word of mouth is a powerful thing.

Also of note: Cedric the Entertainer's 'Code Name: The Cleaner' comes out this weekend. Shouldn't make the top five, but who knows, stranger things have happened. Cedric's got his peeps. Also, it co-stars Lucy Liu and Nicollette Sheridan. Um, that's pretty much all I have to say about this one.

Deadline: Saturday at noon. You've got 24 hours. Go.

1. Night at the Museum
2. The Pursuit of Happyness
3. Dreamgirls
4. Happily N'Ever After
5. Children of Men

POST: What's your weekend top five prediction?

POST: What do you think of these movies?

'Children of Men': Showtimes, tix, trailer & more | Photos | Reviews

'Happily N'Ever After': Showtimes, tix, trailer & more | Exclusive clips | Photos

'Freedom Writers': Showtimes, tix, trailer & more | Exclusive clip | Photos

Apologies for the lateness of this post -- I'm working out of the L.A. office (where I was introduced to Mr. Moviefone himself, very exciting) for the holidays, and there's this funny little thing called a "time difference." So, no time for extraneous chit-chat! And away we go:

Rocky Balboa: Rock-Y! Rock-Y! Sylvester Stallone returns as the Italian Stallion, and if you thought he was too old to fight, my friends, you are mistaken. The man's in decent shape for 60 years old, even if the sight of all those veins popping off his chest gave me nightmares for a week. While there isn't much to the storyline -- Rocky comes out of retirement to fight the current heavyweight champ -- it's got the usual thrilling climactic bout, and it's nice to see Burt Young as Paulie again, though Talia Shire's Adrian has fallen victim to the cancer known as Asking for Too Much Money. In terms of franchise, 'Rocky Balboa' is better than 'Rocky V,' but not as good as I-IV. Prediction? The old boy's got some life in him yet.

Night at the Museum: Ben Stiller plays a security guard working the graveyard shift at the natural history museum. He's new on the job, you see, so when the exhibits come to life, he's not sure whether it's just a joke they play on all the newbies -- like, that enraged Roman gladiator coming for his head is actually just Joe, the janitor. Anyway, 'Museum' has a ton of things going for it: It's the only comedy opening wide this weekend, it's the only family movie opening wide this week, and it'll be showing on a whopping 3,685 screens. And, of course, it stars Stiller and perennial yukkster Robin Williams (as Teddy Roosevelt, natch). Christmas falls on a Monday, too late to make the weekend box office returns, but families with kids are going to have a whole lot of time on their hands this weekend. Nothing says Christmas weekend like a dinosaur on the loose.

We Are Marshall: I'm a sucker for sports movies. They don't even have to be any good for me to buy every emotional hook, line and sinker. So it works out nicely that 'We Are Marshall' is actually a pretty good sports movie, and the fact that it's based on a true story makes it even more resonant. Matthew McConaughey is his charismatic self as Jack Lengyel, who coaches the Marshall football team after its players and coaches are killed in a plane crash, and Matthew Fox, fresh off his 'Lost' success (though he'll always be Charlie from 'Party of Five' to me) is an assistant coach who sticks around, despite his grief, to help. Remember last week, when 'Pursuit of Happyness' got the top spot and I said people like to cry around Christmas? Let's keep that in mind. Of course, everyone in the mood for a good sob might head to 'Happyness' instead. So much crying, so little time.

The Good Shepherd: Not to be confused with 'The Good German' -- that one's about Nazis, this one's about the CIA -- the 'Good Shepherd' stars Matt Damon and Angelina Jolie, as a CIA founder and his wife, and was helmed by Robert De Niro in only his second directorial effort. It's a serious adult film somewhat along the lines of 'The Departed' (which also, coincidentally enough, stars Damon and Alec Baldwin), albeit not quite as bloody or intense; and reviews have mostly been decent, with some Oscar talk for the film and its actors. It may be a little heavy for this holiday weekend, though, and at 2 hours and 40 minutes, you'd have to have a LOT more Angelina Jolie in there to get big crowds to come out for it.

That's all I've got for you today, my peeps. I was going to move the prediction deadline up to Saturday at noon, but since I'm posting this so late, we'll stick with Saturday at midnight -- but do stick to it, or I'll have to sic a T-Rex skeleton on you. And another tip: If you're an alumnus from our old blog platform, please be sure to post as your old screen name, so that we know who you are. Makes the math much easier.

And with that, I wish you all a merry Christmas, happy Chanukah, cool Kwanzaa, festive Festivus and all those other great holidays. Don't eat too much. Oh, go ahead and eat too much.

1. Night at the Museum
2. Rocky Balboa
3. The Pursuit of Happyness
4. Eragon
5. We Are Marshall

POST: What's your weekend top five prediction?

POST: What do you think of these movies?

Night at the Museum: Showtimes, tix & more | Exclusive clips | Photos

Rocky Balboa: Showtimes, tix & more | Exclusive clip | Photos

We Are Marshall: Showtimes, tix & more | McConaughey & Fox Unscripted | Photos

The Good Shepherd: Showtimes, tix & more | Exclusive clip | Photos

Greetings and salutations, all you box office predictors -- or as I like to call you, BOPs. (Behind your backs, of course.) It's the morning after the office holiday party, which means I am moving a tad slowly right now, which means this is going to be the shortest Box Office Prediction ever. Please, try to contain your crushing disappointment.

'Eragon': I get to see a fair number of movies for my job, but the one that's prompted the most curiosity among friends of mine this year (as in, "Please please please tell me when you get to see a screening, I am SO EXCITED for it") has been this one. The first book in Christopher Paolini's 'Inheritance' trilogy comes to the big screen this weekend complete with fire-breathing CGI dragon, a newcomer (Ed Speleers) as the fledgling Dragon Rider, Jeremy Irons as his mentor Brom, and John Malkovich as bad guy Galbatorix. Aaaand that's pretty much all I know about it, since apparently the movie didn't screen in New York. Damn you, 20th Century Fox! At any rate, excitement for 'Eragon' in certain circles has reached a fever pitch, so the question really isn't whether or not the movie will finish No. 1, but how much it'll make. 'The Chronicles of Narnia' made $65 million in its opening weekend; 'The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring' made $47 million. My guess? 'Eragon' won't quite reach those numbers, but somewhere around $25-30 million is probably a safe bet.

'Charlotte's Web': I was a complete bookworm as a child -- still am, really -- and 'Charlotte's Web' was one of my very first favorite books. (Well, first favorite book that didn't have pictures in it, anyway.) Therefore, I have to admit I was a little taken aback when I heard that there was a new movie in the works, as I didn't want anything to mar the pictures I already have in my head of Wilbur the pig, Charlotte the spider and everything else in E.B. White's wonderful children's classic. That said, it's getting very nice reviews, and Julia Roberts (who provides the voice for Charlotte) is one of those stars that I will never, ever get tired of. Plus, Steve Buscemi as Templeton the rat! Genius! So it looks like 'Happy Feet' will be toppled at last ... but don't cry for the penguins. They had a nice run of it, after all.

'The Pursuit of Happyness': Interestingly enough, all three movies opening wide this weekend were based on books. (Go, reading!) 'Happyness' is based on the memoir by Chris Gardner, who overcame seemingly unsurmountable odds to become a successful stockbroker while caring for his young son and living in homeless shelters. Will Smith stars as Gardner, and his son Christopher is played by Smith's real-life son, Jaden -- who's never acted before, but who does a terrific job (as does his dad, who just earned a Golden Globe nomination for his performance). If you're in the mood for a tearjerker, then this is the movie for you; there's one scene involving a Captain America doll, of all things, that is one the most wrenching scenes in the movies this year. I kid you not.

If you live in New York, San Francisco or Los Angeles, then you're lucky enough to get to see 'Dreamgirls' this weekend -- but since it's only opening on three screens, I'll save that analysis for another week. Ready to predict? All righty. Please don't forget to post by midnight on Saturday if you want your prediction to count. And have a rockin' weekend, all.

1. Eragon
2. Charlotte's Web
3. The Pursuit of Happyness
4. Apocalypto
5. Happy Feet

POST: What's your weekend top five prediction?

POST: What do you think of these movies?

'Eragon': Showtimes, trailer & more | Exclusive clips | Photos

'Charlotte's Web': Showtimes, trailer & more | Five-minute clip | Photos

'The Pursuit of Happyness': Showtimes, trailer & more | Photos | Chris Gardner interview